Second Look at Federated Suns 3025 'Mech Production

[TL;DR?
157 Wolverines and Griffins;
130 Valkyries;
122 Enforcers;
88 Locusts, Phoenix Hawks and Wasps;
64 JagerMechs;
29 Dervishes;
28 Blackjacks;
20 Marauders;
20 Victors;
14 Ostsols;
11 Ostscouts;
7 Javelins;
5 Atlases; and
5 Riflemen.]

This calls up memories and shadows of memories from fourteen or fifteen years ago. I'm sure people were trying to work it out fourteen or fifteen years before that, too.

29 Phoenix Hawks would put the Suns 830 tons shy of a 49 ton national average. That's 17 'Mechs' worth - maybe to make up for saddling Liao and Kurita with 17 Chargers.

Interestingly, when HD:FS (p125) talks about which 'Mechs are most common in lances of different weight, it mentions Shadow Hawks instead of Wolverines. Wonder if that's an error (like the Centurions on Panpour) or deliberate.

Inner Sphere Population in 3025

Turns out I accidentally hid Le Blanc when I pieced my map together, so I fixed that and did some other cleaning. Full size available here.

I don't think it's a secret that BattleTech's map is based on England's. Probably not a rectilinear projection like the one for 1974-1996 that I colorized below, though... I wish the "warp" tool in my old free version of photoshop would let me anchor points after I've stretched them. My .psd file is here if someone else wants to fool around with it.

House populations are based on those same English regions, too. Didn't find 1980s figures online so I'm using a 1988 World Book Encyclopedia.

First Look at 3025 Davion 'Mech Manufacturing

[Skip to the bottom to see my estimates.]

from House Davion: The Federated Suns

Seeing as how every other faction with complete-ish manufacturing data (that is to say, everyone but Kurita and Liao) builds all three of the Locust, Wasp and Stinger; and that Achernar of New Avalon builds only the Locust and Wasp (and Phoenix Hawk) but not the Stinger; I think Aldis of Terra's unnamed 'Mech production is likely to be Stingers; and I suspect the Weimalu proposal is a hedge against loss of access to Aldis in the upcoming Fourth Succession War (and is ultimately supplanted by the Hornet line on Talon).

Remember how, on the MW1e 'Mech Lance tables, the frequency of Liao, Steiner and Kurita 'Mechs line up with the frequency of those factions on the Character Affiliation table (400, 500 and 600 respectively), but Davion was 675 instead of 700? I notice that Aldis of Terra supplies the Federated Suns yet is independent of them - 25 'Mechs/yr from Terra would cover that gap nicely. It's a little on the small side, as 'Mech manufacturers go, but that's fitting; Terra never comes across as a big military supplier in 3025 material.

I also notice that 25+50+75+100+125+150+175 = 700. If we look Davion manufacturers, Independence of Quentin falls between 50 and 75; the two manufacturers above it don't give numbers, but Corean of New Avalon's 130 is close to 125; and Dorwinion builds exactly 150 (6000 over 40 years). So the Davion Weapon Industries pages not only order manufacturers by size (as do the Steiner, Kurita and Liao books), but also rates them in fairly predictable intervals. 

If the 'Mechs named on the Davion industries pages show the same 270 : 230 split (common unseens vs. less shared factional designs), then Kallon Industries must produce only 55ish Enforcers and JagerMechs combined (230 minus Valkyries, Atlases, etc). If the Suns produce 700 'Mechs/yr and the industries pages show only 230+270, then 200 'Mechs aren't being shown, and the remaining Enforcers must be among those 200. TR:3025 puts the primary Enforcer/Dervish factory on a world called Dorwinion - since Cal-Boeing of Belladonna is also at a place called "Dorwinion," I'm taking them (and their production rate of 150/yr) as an intentional analogue for Achernar of Dorwinion.

Norse of Marduk is tricky; I don't want to outshine the combined output from Defiance's two sites. I'm less concerned about outshining Nanking's Wolverine line, since that one isn't operating at full capacity in 3025. It helps that I can count some of Norse's production as being at a second site.

My first estimate of Davion manufacturing rates is below. What's really neat is that if you add up all the tonnage, and divide by 49 tons (the average mass from the FWL book), it comes out to a hair under 675 'Mechs' worth of 49-ton 'Mechs. It makes me think the final numbers will end up being pretty close. (Well, that, plus how hard it is to change things without skewing light.)

I've been taking it for granted that the "130" Valkyries and "20" Marauders (and so on) mentioned in the text really are exactly 130 and 20 (and so on), but I have to wonder if they aren't being rounded off.

I've included Javelins and Blackjacks in the table because the Marik and Steiner books include designs like the Spider and Goliath that're even deader in TR:3025.

"Secret Project" - BattleTech faction intros

After making this guide for new customers a few years ago, I decided that since I was doing a lot of factional research anyway to figure out manufacturing rates, I may as well create a beginner's guide to BattleTech's factions.

But what are factions even for in BattleTech? They have no gameplay effect; they don't constrain force composition; the product line isn't organized by faction; they aren't being used to organize paint schemes; and they do little for mid-game banter.

I think originally, and at their most basic, the factions exist as a way of communicating the scope of the setting and how games fit within that scope; then, as flavor text is added, they create the illusion of ongoing campaigns for the customer to aspire to. That, then, should be my goal: to give each faction all the trappings of a functional campaign environment, with as many hooks and tools to that end as possible, without assuming any particular rules or scale.

Don't know when or if I'll get around to finishing this, so, here's what I'm picturing:

The 156 Most Populous Worlds Amount to 450 Billion People

[Edit, 2019 April 2: revised calculation here. /Edit]

Someone called Mendrugo is doing an interesting review of BattleTech fiction in stardate order (wrong franchise, sure, but it's easier than saying "chronological according to fictional date rather than real world copyright date"), and he's raised an interesting question: how come worlds like Trellwan, Verthandi and Stein's Folly don't seem to have HPGs when MW1e says HPG stations are located on every inhabited world in the Inner Sphere?

The trick is that the HPG comment comes in a section which distinguishes "inhabited" worlds (and bandit holds) from mere colonies. To wit: while "uncounted other worlds are claimed and exploited by Davion forces," the Federated Suns only possess "about 110 star systems actively settled under its aegis" (page 112). The old House Davion sourcebook (FASA1623, hereafter HD:FS) agrees by setting the number of duchies at 100 to 120. (No doubt the exact number fluctuates with loss and conquest along the House border.)

Unlike the other House books, at most 19 of the 30 worlds listed in the HD:FS Atlas have substantial populations; adding the 9 Chesterton worlds published previously in HL:CC brings the Suns up to 28--exactly the same as the Free Worlds League, and in line with the Draconis Combine and Lyran Commonwealth.

The Housebook Atlases focus overwhelmingly on capitals and other highly populated worlds. By failing to list more such worlds, the HD:FS Atlas rather strongly suggests that the Federated Suns don't have any more to list; and since the Chesterton worlds give the Suns' count parity with the other Houses, it's likely that the other Houses don't have any beyond what they've already listed either.

Now here's a curious thing:

Neither the HD:FS Atlas nor the HS:LC Atlas give population figures. But if we suppose that Steiner's major worlds average midway between Marik's and Kurita's, and if we suppose that Davion's major worlds average midway between Kurita's and Chesterton's, then the (approximately) 156 most highly populated worlds in the Successor States have a combined population of 450 billion people.

The number 450 is remarkable because the number of "inhabited" worlds MW1e gives for each House also adds up to 450.

Another curious thing:

I count about 1900 stars on the Housebook maps, with something like 2000 worlds claimed between the five Housebooks; meanwhile, HD:FS (second page of its History chapter) philosophizes thusly:

Perhaps there are epochs in history when humanity finds an area large enough to grow into--first a country, then a continent, then a world, then four thousand worlds--and remains at that level of expansion until it, too, has been outgrown.

So: greater than 450 billion people, and 2000-4000 colonized planets? This sounds an awful lot like what Robert A. Heinlein said in his book Time Enough for Love, which implies the Inner Sphere has right around 500 billion people across 2000 planets.

I'm tempted to estimate the population of each tier geometrically--450 billion, then 45 billion, then 4.5 billion, then 0.45 billion; and since the divide between "settled" worlds and colonies is at 450 worlds, to put each tier break at (450 - 156 = 294) 294/156ths of the previous tier; so the first 156 worlds average 2.9 billion apiece, then the next 294 would average 150 million apiece, the next 554 would average 8.1 million apiece, the next 1044 would average 430 thousand apiece, and the last 1968 would average 23 thousand apiece.