FASAnomics 101

[Crude summary copy-pasted from conversation elsewhere. Still unable to blog properly.]

3025 production at 5 major sites

[Jan 10: edited formatting, clarity, and added the most essential backlinks]

Tikonov should produce about 6800 tons of 'Mechs/yr.

Confirming 385 Regiments & 450 Settled Worlds in 3025 Successor States

BattleDroids describes regiments as containing 108 BattleMechs (in 3 battalions of 36), and the regimental commander as Duke of a whole planet. MechWarrior 1st Edition counts about 450 settled worlds in the five Successor States. 

108 regiments * 450 commanders = 48,600 'Mechs

BattleForce 1st Edition says the Houses reorganized to 128 'Mechs per regiment (in 3 battalions of 40 plus an 8 'Mech regimental command group). If I recall correctly, it also says this new organization was copied from Wolf's Dragoons.

48,600 / 128 = 379 ²/₃ regiments

Wolf's Dragoons add 5 regiments plus Zeta Battalion to that total. 

379 ²/₃ regiments + 5 1/₃ regiments = 385 regiments

Third look at 3025 Lyran 'Mech Production

[TL;DR: Hesperus builds a heavy 100 'Mechs, Coventry builds a light 139 'Mechs, Furillo builds 39, Carlisle and Sudeten make a combined 55, Tharkad makes 55, Twycross makes a heavy 53, Pandora makes 18, and there's another 41 I have yet to account for.]

Basics: The Lyrans build 500 'Mechs/yr, of which 230 are uncommon, including 109 Commandos, 33 Zeuses and 5 Firestarters.

Defiance Industries and Coventry Metal Works - being the Commonwealth's first (HS:LC p122) and second (p165) biggest manufacturers, and each listing their primary products (p136) first - set a precedent for HS:LC's manufacturing page listing everything from biggest to smallest.

Key insight this time around is that many of HS:LC's manufacturers are new, that P1e's manufacturing pages look like they were cut from an early draft of HS:LC, and that the Periphery states build 167 'Mechs/yr.

Second Look at Federated Suns 3025 'Mech Production

[TL;DR?
157 Wolverines and Griffins;
130 Valkyries;
122 Enforcers;
88 Locusts, Phoenix Hawks and Wasps;
64 JagerMechs;
29 Dervishes;
28 Blackjacks;
20 Marauders;
20 Victors;
14 Ostsols;
11 Ostscouts;
7 Javelins;
5 Atlases; and
5 Riflemen.]

This calls up memories and shadows of memories from fourteen or fifteen years ago. I'm sure people were trying to work it out fourteen or fifteen years before that, too.

29 Phoenix Hawks would put the Suns 830 tons shy of a 49 ton national average. That's 17 'Mechs' worth - maybe to make up for saddling Liao and Kurita with 17 Chargers.

Interestingly, when HD:FS (p125) talks about which 'Mechs are most common in lances of different weight, it mentions Shadow Hawks instead of Wolverines. Wonder if that's an error (like the Centurions on Panpour) or deliberate.

JumpShip Class Numbers for 3025

The best candidate I've found is a simple geometric sequence where each class has 27/50ths as many ships as the previous class.

Qty	- Class
920	- Invader (32% are commercial)
497	- Merchant
268	- Scout
145	- Star Lord
78	- Monolith
42	- ??
23	- ??
12	- ?Explorer? (HM:FWL, p127, 152)
7	- luxury liners (HD:FS, p173)
4	- ??
2	- ??
1	- ??
etc	- various

The top five ships add up to 1908. That's how many stars the old 3025 map shows in the Successor States. 

MW1e claims there are 450 "actively settled" worlds, and the House Atlases describe 156 as highly populated, leaving 294 others. There are 294 Invaders in commercial use.

145 worlds have more than a billion people. That's one world for every Star Lord.

The Successor States have 268 Scout vessels for 270 regiments' worth of House 'Mechs. Could be why there's a Suns regiment and a Capellan regiment which replace all their 'Mechs with tanks.

I've been using this sequence for a while as a fast approximation (it's easier than looking up my old MW1e estimates). Wouldn't have considered it seriously if not for conversations with Frabby and a Simulated Knave.

3025 production of generic lights and heavies

My current worksheet (sorry about the mess). Solved light 'Mechs, am close to solving generic heavies, and am close to figuring out Stalkers and Banshees. Explanations below the cut.

# 'Mechs Controlled By Local Nobles in 3025

[Three funerals and a wedding in the span of six weeks; that's life, I guess. Sorry for not having this up earlier.]

TL;DR? Houses Steiner, Davion and Liao seem to reckon second-line forces as

70 / 5 + 2 = 16 Davion second-line regiments
50 / 5 + 2 = 12 Steiner second-line regiments
40 / 5 + 2 = 10 Liao second-line regiments

and Marik, Davion and Liao count their nominal regiments as

70 *1.1 + 1 = 78 nominal Davion House regiments
50 *1.1 + 1 = 56 nominal Marik House regiments
40 *1.1 + 1 = 45 nominal Liao House regiments
20 *1.1 + 1 = 23 nominal Liao Merc regiments

3025 Heavy Production: FWL vs MW1e

Remember how the Free Worlds League's manufacturing listings only added up to 486 'Mechs per year instead of the 500 claimed in the text? The most popular solution is to add 14 Thunderbolts per year. I eventually came around to that solution too, but now I think it's actually 13 Thunderbolts per year, not 14.

• The manufacturing chart shows the FWL building only 257 universal designs per year. 13 Thunderbolts would raise that to exactly 270. 
• The Earthwerks corporate profile mentions Thunderbolts instead of Phoenix Hawks, and the manufacturing chart lists the Phoenix Hawk at 13 per year.
• When you line the FWL figures up against my figures from the MW1e encounter tables, the Thunderbolt fits perfectly at 13 per year.

From left to right, the Warhammer, Marauder, Archer, Thunderbolt and Rifleman align so perfectly that I have to suspect these values represent their overall, sphere-wide ratios.

Quick note on 3025 production of universal designs

The Inner Sphere and Periphery build a total of 2867 'Mechs per year. Supposing half of those are the the universal designs from the 2nd edition boxed set, then I think their annual production by each House should break down like this:

Total	1433.33 (half of 2867)
Davion	270
Kurita	135 (counting the 270 LAMs at half covers the other 135)
Steiner	270
Marik	270, +51.67 "-M" Variants
Liao	270
Periphery	166.67 (they don't build any other 'Mechs, just the universal designs)

This gives me a few clues about the other Houses. Most notably, it'll help me sort out the weirdness in the Marik production data, and it looks like Aldis Industries of Terra builds something other than Stingers for the Federated Suns.

Inner Sphere Population in 3025

Turns out I accidentally hid Le Blanc when I pieced my map together, so I fixed that and did some other cleaning. Full size available here.

I don't think it's a secret that BattleTech's map is based on England's. Probably not a rectilinear projection like the one for 1974-1996 that I colorized below, though... I wish the "warp" tool in my old free version of photoshop would let me anchor points after I've stretched them. My .psd file is here if someone else wants to fool around with it.

House populations are based on those same English regions, too. Didn't find 1980s figures online so I'm using a 1988 World Book Encyclopedia.

Hunger in the year 3058: Feeding Sarna from Kaifeng

Someone challenged me to justify low JumpShip counts in BattleTech. 
I believe I've done so. 
(These other threads are also relevant.)
Warning! This is like my other "bean counting" posts except EVEN MORESO.

First Look at 3025 Davion 'Mech Manufacturing

[Skip to the bottom to see my estimates.]

from House Davion: The Federated Suns

Seeing as how every other faction with complete-ish manufacturing data (that is to say, everyone but Kurita and Liao) builds all three of the Locust, Wasp and Stinger; and that Achernar of New Avalon builds only the Locust and Wasp (and Phoenix Hawk) but not the Stinger; I think Aldis of Terra's unnamed 'Mech production is likely to be Stingers; and I suspect the Weimalu proposal is a hedge against loss of access to Aldis in the upcoming Fourth Succession War (and is ultimately supplanted by the Hornet line on Talon).

Remember how, on the MW1e 'Mech Lance tables, the frequency of Liao, Steiner and Kurita 'Mechs line up with the frequency of those factions on the Character Affiliation table (400, 500 and 600 respectively), but Davion was 675 instead of 700? I notice that Aldis of Terra supplies the Federated Suns yet is independent of them - 25 'Mechs/yr from Terra would cover that gap nicely. It's a little on the small side, as 'Mech manufacturers go, but that's fitting; Terra never comes across as a big military supplier in 3025 material.

I also notice that 25+50+75+100+125+150+175 = 700. If we look Davion manufacturers, Independence of Quentin falls between 50 and 75; the two manufacturers above it don't give numbers, but Corean of New Avalon's 130 is close to 125; and Dorwinion builds exactly 150 (6000 over 40 years). So the Davion Weapon Industries pages not only order manufacturers by size (as do the Steiner, Kurita and Liao books), but also rates them in fairly predictable intervals. 

If the 'Mechs named on the Davion industries pages show the same 270 : 230 split (common unseens vs. less shared factional designs), then Kallon Industries must produce only 55ish Enforcers and JagerMechs combined (230 minus Valkyries, Atlases, etc). If the Suns produce 700 'Mechs/yr and the industries pages show only 230+270, then 200 'Mechs aren't being shown, and the remaining Enforcers must be among those 200. TR:3025 puts the primary Enforcer/Dervish factory on a world called Dorwinion - since Cal-Boeing of Belladonna is also at a place called "Dorwinion," I'm taking them (and their production rate of 150/yr) as an intentional analogue for Achernar of Dorwinion.

Norse of Marduk is tricky; I don't want to outshine the combined output from Defiance's two sites. I'm less concerned about outshining Nanking's Wolverine line, since that one isn't operating at full capacity in 3025. It helps that I can count some of Norse's production as being at a second site.

My first estimate of Davion manufacturing rates is below. What's really neat is that if you add up all the tonnage, and divide by 49 tons (the average mass from the FWL book), it comes out to a hair under 675 'Mechs' worth of 49-ton 'Mechs. It makes me think the final numbers will end up being pretty close. (Well, that, plus how hard it is to change things without skewing light.)

I've been taking it for granted that the "130" Valkyries and "20" Marauders (and so on) mentioned in the text really are exactly 130 and 20 (and so on), but I have to wonder if they aren't being rounded off.

I've included Javelins and Blackjacks in the table because the Marik and Steiner books include designs like the Spider and Goliath that're even deader in TR:3025.

2000 Stalkers in 3025

The Stinger, Wasp and Locust are the three most common light 'Mechs. They are a certain fraction of all light 'Mechs. Perhaps the most common assault 'Mechs (the Stalker, Banshee and Charger) are an identical fraction of all assault 'Mechs?

• Per TR:3025, "five thousand or more" Stingers survive to 3025. Adding Wasps and Locusts in the MW1e ratio of 51:42:32 should bring us to 12500 (5100+4200+3200).
• I count 55000 'Mechs total in 3025. BF1e says 30% (which is 16500) are light and 10% (5500) are assault weight. 
• Per TR:3025, about 500 Chargers, 5000/3 Banshees, and a larger but unspecified number of Stalkers survive in 3025.

12500/16500ths of 5500 is exactly equal to 500 Chargers, 5000/3 Banshees and 2000 Stalkers. That's a very plausible number of Stalkers; and if any of my premises going into this were wrong or arbitrary, the number shouldn't have come out as such a clean integer. I kinda wonder if the assault 'Mech fraction was picked first and then the light 'Mech fractions were reverse-engineered to match.

How MW1e Figures House Currencies

House	Strength in...
	Stars	Mechs	Currency
Davion	507	7	9
Kurita	407	6	8
Steiner	439	5	11
Marik	332	5	7
Liao	209	4	5

When MW1e said House currency was "measured in terms of industrial strength and the availability of important natural resources" (p103), I had no idea there would be an actual equation behind it. Approximately:

(Stars - 'Mechs*60 + 173)*(9/256) = strength of currency

The number of stars in a realm seems to be a proxy for that realm's natural and industrial resources. That's pretty fair, I think. "Mechs" is 1/100th of the House's annual 'Mech production, and seems to be a proxy for the House's military production in general. So we've got a pretty clear "guns and butter" situation. Not, y'know, clear enough to base a domain-building game on yet, but it's a step in the right direction.

The 9/256 factor is very interesting. Remember how Periphery realms get four worlds for free and then need two companies of 'Mechs for every world after? Well, there's 9 companies in a regiment and (per BF1e) 128 'Mechs in a regiment, so to garrison 9 extra worlds you would need 256 'Mechs. 

I don't know what the 173 is. Could be a logistical term which varies slightly from House to House for reasons I've yet to discover. Could be a meaningless term invented to put the currencies on a more attractive scale.

First Look at Sphere-Wide Fighter Production

We know the Free Worlds League is "the preeminent builder of new and reconditioned DropShips and Aerospace Fighters," manufacturing 325 AeroSpace Fighters per year (HM:FWL, p114-115).

Recall that the Inner Sphere builds 2700 'Mechs/yr, with the five Great Houses each taking 7/27ths, 6/27ths, 5/27ths, another 5/27ths, and 4/27ths of that total. We have no reason to think AeroSpace production would be apportioned the same way, but if the FWL's 325 fighters/yr did represent 7/27ths of the Inner Sphere's total production, then that would put the annual total around 1254 fighters/yr.

I don't have a direct way to corroborate that figure, but I think I can check it indirectly by estimating LAM production.

I suggested a few posts ago that the Draconis Combine may produce 270 Stinger LAMs/yr; and we've seen that LAMs are as prominent in the FWL as are assault 'Mechs, of which the FWL builds 34/yr. 270 Stinger LAMs + 34 Phoenix Hawk LAMs makes for an annual total of 9800 tons of LAMs. I imagine LAM turnover would've been figured as an average of 'Mech and AeroSpace Fighter turnover, so, after some algebra...

...and assuming that (like 'Mechs) AeroSpace production averages 49 tons per fighter, we get an annual turnover of 1263.63 Aerospace Fighters. This figure is intriguingly indistinguishable from 1263.89, which is what the total would be if the FWL's 325 fighters/yr represented 9/35ths of the Inner Sphere's production, with the other four Houses taking 8/35ths, 7/35ths, 6/35ths and 5/35ths.

This 9:8:7:6:5 split is enticingly simple, but there may be one or two more LAM manufacturers yet to account for, and I'm not certain that AeroSpace Fighters do average 49 tons like 'Mechs do.

I hate to go to the Availability Chart in the old Mercenary's Handbook - I think I've mentioned before that its biases make extrapolation difficult, and AeroSpace Fighters have the added problem that I don't know what total percentage of fighters are light, medium or heavy.

But unlike the 'Mech availability numbers, the AeroSpace ones actually fall into some kind of order.

Summing (or multiplying) a faction's chances of rolling its light, medium and heavy fighters puts the Houses at fairly regular intervals with Marik reassuringly at the top. The other Houses seem to follow according to how much attrition their average 'Mech regiment suffers each year (ie, annual 'Mech production divided by number of House and mercenary regiments):

Marik = 500 / 60 rgts
Kurita = 600 / 80 rgts
Liao = 400 / 60 rgts
Steiner = 500 / 75 rgts
Davion = 700 / 110 rgts

[Edit, March 16: the JumpShip and DropShip manufacturers on page 15 of DS&JS are also keyed in this order! /Edit]

I'm not surprised that Davion would come out on the bottom. House Davion: The Federated Suns (hereafter HD:FS) seems to list weapons manufacturers from biggest to smallest, and its three AeroSpace manufacturers are all listed after a 60-65/yr 'Mech manufacturer, so a Davion total around 180 fighters/yr is to be expected.

Bandit Kings (part 3): Populations

Been looking at how Periphery states are put together. In mid-October I saw some people talking about what the population of a typical Periphery nation might be, so I took all the populations listed in P1e and put 'em into a quick couple of charts.

Top one lists those populations (in millions) from most populous to least populous. Bottom one shows exactly how many millions for each world, the alliance or kingdom each world belongs to, and the total number of worlds and total number of 'Mech battalions possessed by that alliance or kingdom.

Highly populous worlds are relatively rare, just like in the Inner Sphere, and only appear only in the largest, most stable nations; curiously, the size of those populations seem to be in tune with the overall size of the nation. Something like

[Total Population in millions] = 5*[regiments^(20/7)]

with 60%-70% of that total being concentrated on the capital world. (This approximation seems okay for the big three states, and Randis too, but is a little off for Novo Franklin and the Lothian League. A proper logistic function might get better results.)

I suspect the Outworld and Independent worlds are most representative of the Periphery in general (and perhaps the Inner Sphere too), though the kink in the top chart from world #32 to world #33 (Oberon to Lushann) makes it look like populations smaller than 40,000 are underrepresented.

Bandit Kingdoms have the lowest populations. Not surprising, since they tend to be described as having the worst infrastructure. Could also represent how few people a unit of 'Mechs can actually conquer and control.

skiptober 'Mech industries

[Unrelated to today's post, but worth repeating: longtime BattleTech author Blaine Pardoe has posted some of the original BattleTech maps - with z-axis notations!]

Okay, remember how the Free Worlds League builds 500 'Mechs/yr, with 230 being "signature" for their faction? Curiously, the Draconis Combine's "Weapon Industries" page seems to list 230 signature 'Mechs too.

• We know from the MW1e tables that Kurita builds 142 Panthers and 64 Dragons/yr. 
• Luthien Armor Works should build 13 Chargers/yr. If we rate Chargers as the Periphery's contribution to assault class manufacturing, they'd total 16.7/yr; if we model their production on bug 'Mechs (~430/yr vs 12500 in existence), they'd total ~17.2/yr; and I figure Kurita and Liao split assault production 93:24. 
• Marik builds 9 Quickdraws/yr, out of a total 500 'Mechs/yr. Kurita builds a total of 600 'Mechs/yr. So, at a guess, Kurita might build 9 * 600/500 = ~11 Quickdraws.

142+64+13+11 = 230.

We know that page doesn't list everything they build, of course; there's the Atlases at Al Na'ir, and there must be hundreds other 'Mechs/yr elsewhere. (I could maybe believe LexaTech builds 270 LAMs/yr, but that's pushing it. 370/yr is right out.)

Although I don't have as much data for the Federated Suns' weapons industries, it looks like their pages may show 230 "signature" 'Mechs/yr too. (It would certainly explain why they list Cal-Boeing's Ferret facility at Dorwinion on Belladonna while omitting Achernar's Enforcer and Dervish facility there.)

This is all a long-winded way of saying that I'm really very sure that the Lyrans produce 230 "signature" 'Mechs and 270 more common ones each year. Unfortunately, it turns out this means I have to discard my inferences from TR:3050. (Well, not totally discard them; since the 3050 Lyrans inherit former Capellan factories in the Sarna March, I can use them to inform my estimates of 3025 Capellan production.)

I've been thinking that Taurian production might be a microcosm of Lyran production; that might hold up. I'm having less luck keeping Defiance's production comfortably high - I'm hoping that Banshee production isn't the missing piece, because I'd like to avoid adding that in if at all possible.

Was hoping the 'Mech Availability Table from the '80s Mercenary's Handbook would help, but the factional and rarity biases are too strong to do that easily.

More 'Mech Production Insights From MW1e

Since I'm taking the production rates for Valkyries and other signature 'Mechs from the MW1e Enemy Lance Table, I decided to compare each House's portion of signature 'Mechs with their overall level of production.

I'm surprised by how well the Houses line up. Each has a base of 269, and then however many signature 'Mechs from the Lance Table, plus additional 'Mechs amounting to 61.2% of their signature designs.

Davion is a little off, which is discouraging; and the Hermes II (MW1e's signature Marik 'Mech) doesn't even appear on the table, so I need to check Marik some other way.

I think the Marauder-M and Wolverine-M could be considered signature Marik designs.

The Stinger, Wasp, Griffin, Locust, Warhammer, Archer, Shadow Hawk, Phoenix Hawk, BattleMaster, Rifleman and Crusader definitely aren't. Marik's manufacturing chart shows 257 of these/yr, and 14 Thunderbolts/yr raises the total to 271. That agrees pretty well with the 269 figure on my graph.

If each House builds 270 of these/yr, then that would mean the standard variants of these fourteen standard designs make up about 50% of the Inner Sphere's annual 'Mech production.

# House Regiments *10 = 'Mech Production

House Liao: The Capellan Confederation (hereafter HL:CC) details its forces at the battalion level, which makes it easy to see they have about 40 regiments worth of house regulars. I notice that House Liao happens to build 400 'Mechs/yr and MW1e gives you a 4/36 chance of being in their employ.

The other House TO&Es aren't as detailed, but they seem to follow the same pattern: Davion has 70 regiments of house troops, Kurita has 60, Steiner 50 and Marik 50.

(I think we can trust that (for instance) the Davion book is accounting for short and weakened units when it estimates its 118 regimental commands at an overall strength of 110 regiments; and if we subtract known mercenary regiments from that overall strength, the remaining regiments should be house regulars (plus whatever mercs are too small to appear on the TO&Es).)

Of the 385 regiments' worth of 'Mechs operating in the Successor States, 270 belong to house troops while 115--or about 29.9%--belong to mercenaries.

Quick Plausibility Check:

• The Periphery Houses have a total of 17.33 regiments. At a ratio of 115 to 385, we'd expect 5.18 of those regiments to be mercenary, and we do indeed see 5 regiments of mercs. 
• MW1e gives you a 2/36 chance to roll a "bandit" affiliation (page 135 calls the difference between bandits and other alliances "more semantic than actual"). This implies 20 regiments of "house" troops spread across all lesser Periphery states, which in turn implies 20*115/270 merc regiments. Added to the three Periphery Houses and the five Great Houses, that's 430.85 regiments overall, or (at 128 'Mechs per regiment) 55149 'Mechs, which agrees with my previous estimates.

House Marik, which has 50 regiments of house troops, builds 500 'Mechs/yr with an average mass of 49 tons per 'Mech; since House Steiner sustains the same number of house troops with the same production/yr, they probably average 49 tons per 'Mech too.

The Periphery Houses, on the other hand, have a little more freedom because their production rates aren't encoded in the MW1e Affiliation Table.

The Outworlds Alliance has 1.33 regiments of house troops, so if their production averaged 49 tons per 'Mech, they'd build 13.33 'Mechs per year; to achieve the same overall mass with only 20-ton 'Mechs would require building 13.33*49/20 = 32.67 'Mechs per year.

The Magistracy of Canopus has 3.33 regiments of house troops, less however many mercs are too small to appear on the TO&E; P1e says they produce roughly 30 armor and 30 AeroSpace Fighters, so let's suppose they produce 30*49 tons of 'Mech per year--exactly enough for 10 Shadow Hawks and 46 bug 'Mechs.

The Taurian Concordat might then have 17.33*270/385 - 1.33 - 3 = 7.82 regiments of house troops. As the Periphery state most like a Great House, they probably do build 78 'Mechs per year averaging 49 tons per 'Mech.

This gives the Periphery a total production of 167 'Mechs/yr split into a 3/5/7 ratio (33/56/78). Happily, the MW2e Affiliation Table retains that 3/5/7 ratio circa 3050 when it raises their combined output to 250 'Mechs/yr (50/83.33/116.67).