First Step to 3025 Assault Production Numbers

In previous posts, I have determined...

Annual 'Mech production by House:

700 Davion
600 Kurita
500 Steiner
500 Marik
400 Liao

Marik annual production includes 34 assault 'Mechs:

4 Goliath
7 Awesome
11 Stalker
12 BattleMaster

plus 85 heavy 'Mechs which take the place of assault 'Mechs:

21 Marauder-M
22 Warhammer
42 Orion

Steiner's production probably matches those 'Mechs I just named with assault-weight 'Mechs. So, 34+85 assault 'Mechs/year from Steiner.

Meanwhile, the House Davion book gives the Suns exactly 25 assault 'Mechs per year (20 Victors and 5 Atlases from Quentin).

For reasons I'll explain in a later post, I suspect assault 'Mechs to be 10% of the Inner Sphere's overall annual production. So, 270 total from all parties, less 119 from Steiner, 34 from Marik and 25 from Davion. This leaves 92 for Kurita and Liao to split.

As always, MW1e's events tables are my guide to generic conflict on any given border, which should correspond to how often assault 'Mechs are employed (and therefore lost and replaced).

I.e., the proportion of major conflicts on any given border:

Davion/Kurita	10/36
Liao/Davion	5/36
Kurita/Steiner	8/36
Steiner/Marik	7/36
Marik/Liao	6/36

Steiner is probably directing 8 portions of their assault production toward the Kurita border and 7 portions toward the Marik border, while Davion is probably directing 10 (much smaller) portions towards Kurita and 5 portions towards Liao; figure Kurita is being pressed with 80 increments of assault 'Mech production pressure/year. Assuming Marik directs 6 portions towards Liao, Liao would be pressed with only 24 increments. So Kurita is probably building 71 assault 'Mechs annually, and Liao 21.

Quick Plausibility Check: if Davion+Kurita+Liao produce 25+71+21 assault 'Mechs out of 700+600+400 total 'Mechs annually, that would make assault 'Mechs 6.88% of their annual production. That's very close to Marik's (34 / 500 = 6.8%).

Draconis Combine: Probable World Populations

[Edit, 2019 Feb 28: I have refined my opinions on this topic. I no longer believe the Combine has room for more worlds of 500 million or more people; I now believe Ningxia's 23 million is average for the Combine's 379 "typical" stars, and the lowest 312 of those average 1 million people apiece while the highest 67 average 113 (or maybe 77.8) million apiece. /Edit]

Total Population: 90 billion (75% concentrated on administrative worlds)
Average Population per World: 260 million (30-40 million for non-capitals)
Minimum Population per "Inhabited" World: 1 million

Supposing that a single Behemoth DropShip can satisfy one day's food and water needs for 12.5 million people, and that a round trip takes 1 month, then just 700 Behemoths could supply all the food and water needs for 1/3rd of the Combine's 350 inhabited worlds. (Essentially every world with 5 million or fewer people.)

Ningxia, with 23 million inhabitants, would be something like the 120th most populous world in the Combine. There's about 25 worlds ranging from 100 million to 600 million inhabitants, an industrial world somewhere around 750 million, and another around 1.1 billion.


How Do I Figure?

360p Is The Only Choice

YouTube has apparently decided that I should only watch videos in 360p. Luckily, I've discovered that changing the URL from something like this...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USkEzLuzmZ4
...to something like this...
https://www.youtube.com/v/USkEzLuzmZ4
...gives me all the old options back.

Edit September 23rd: Unless the video is a vevo music video, in which case I need to find my way around regional restrictions. /Edit

Pathfinder Run #2: Amazon Runaway

My second scenario has long since come and gone. The main elements were a merchant, an unlucky town, some Amazon bandits, and an Amazon runaway; the main clues were a matching set of jewelry and a regionally popular bard duo.

probably inspired by this  (found via Zak)

The Amazons:

• could deflect arrows and magic rays using their bracers 
• had all been kidnapped and brainwashed as children
• rode three apiece (one hidden) on tank-sized rhinoceros beetles
• had spears which drained constitution, spells & spell slots

FWL 3025: Regimental Compositions (part 3)

Is the number of FWL assault battalions proportionate to its rate of assault 'Mech production? If so, then battalion weights can be my guide to FWL Aerospace and LAM production too.

Assault Regiments: the FWL has only two. The way the 6th Marik Militia describes its three assault battalions makes me think the 20th Marik Militia probably has two. (That regiment might consist of two battalions total.)

Heavy Regiments: the composition of five are known and include two assault battalions. If the other twelve regiments are similar, they'd add another 4.8 assault battalions.

Medium Regiments: the compositions of twelve are known and (assuming the Border Protectorate's Iron Guards and Steel Guards entries are a little mixed up) include a single assault battalion. If the other eleven regiments are similar, they'd add another .92 assault battalions.

Light Regiments: the compositions of four light regiments are known, and (assuming the Iron Guards and Steel Guards entries are mixed up) none are known to possess assault battalions. The compositions of eleven more are unknown.

Unknown Regiments: the 25th Marik Militia is listed on the 3025 deployment tables, but not included in the regimental descriptions. Based on the 57 regiments given, I'll abstract it as containing .19 assault battalions.

Land-Air 'Mechs: the four known light regiments include 2.25 battalions of LAMs; if the other eleven are similar, they'd add another 6.2 battalions. The twelve known medium regiments include 1.67 battalions of LAMs; if the other eleven are similar, they'd add another 1.5 battalions. No heavy or assault regiments are noted to possess LAM battalions, and based on the 57 regiments given, I'll abstract the 25th Marik Militia as containing .2 LAM battalions.

This gives the FWL about 14 assault battalions (8 known and 6 more estimated). That's about 7.78% of the regiments claimed in HM:FWL, while assault 'Mechs are 6.8% of the FWL's annual production--pretty close. Based on that, the FWL's 11.8 LAM battalions (3.9 known plus 7.9 estimated) imply that at least 29 of the Stingers, Wasps and Phoenix Hawks built annually in the FWL are actually LAMs.

Page 115's production table doesn't list LAM variants explicitly the way it does Wolverine-Ms and Marauder-Ms, though, and the LexaTech entry in House Kurita: The Draconis Combine also hints at separating LAM production from BattleMech production. Pending how other Houses shake out, I think I'll peg the FWL at a little less than 12 assault battalions (34/500ths (ie, the production ratio) of its non-LAM battalions) and 12 LAM battalions (11.8/166ths (ie, the previously estimated ratio) of its non-assault battalions), and count LAM production as part of AeroSpace production:

FWL 3025: Regimental Compositions (part 2)

First off, despite a handful of instances of poor phrasing, none of Marik's battalions appear to stick to a single weight class. E.g., the "three full-strength battalions of assault 'Mechs" which make the 6th Marik Militia a "shining gem" include a "jump-jet equipped Ostroc" without batting an eye.

My working theory is that battalion weights line up with the RPG's lance weight table. So light battalions would average 165 tons per lance, mediums 205 tons, heavies 245 tons and, extending the pattern, assault battalions would average 285 tons per lance. Haven't tested it too thoroughly yet since the regimental listings only call out about 17 battalions' worth of 'Mech designs.

from images on Sarna

Land-Air 'Mechs: 4 battalions
Hermes IIs: almost 4 battalions
Wolverine-Ms: about 2 battalions
Archers: over 1 battalion
Trebuchets: about 1 battalion
Crusaders: less than 1 battalion
Wasps: about half a battalion
Griffins: about half a battalion
Locusts: about half a battalion
Orions: about a company
Stalkers: about a company
Spiders: about a company
Marauder-Ms: about a company
Awesomes: about two lances
Goliaths: about two lances
Stingers: one to two lances of trainer 'Mechs
Vulcans: about a lance
Cicadas: about a lance
BattleMasters: about a lance

That's most of the 'Mech types produced inside the Free Worlds League. Phoenix Hawks aren't mentioned except for a single LAM. Warhammers, Hunchbacks, Shadow Hawks, Quickdraws and Riflemen aren't mentioned at all. My guess is that the 'Mechs ranked high on that list are disproportionately numerous in the Free Worlds League, while lower ranked 'Mechs occupy a fraction of the military similar to their fraction in other Successor States.

Also, some 'Mechs are more prominent than you'd guess just from their production numbers, which may indicate higher production in past centuries--we already know that the Trebuchet was "produced in large quantities on Irian" in the First Succession War, and that Goliath and Hermes II production isn't what it used to be either.

I divided each 'Mech's total (from the list above) by its annual production.
I suspect the ones above the red line used to have higher annual production.

A few units not produced in the Free Worlds League got called out too. A Zeus and a Chippewa, salvaged form the Lyrans; an Ostroc, a Cyclops and a Mackie, all known to be long out of production anywhere; one or two lances of Chameleon trainer 'Mechs, which had no current production site until TR:3058; and about a lance of Centurions, which had no current production site until TR:3050 carried a typo forward from House Davion: The Federated Suns. I find the Centurion especially interesting, considering its history with the Trebuchet and that the Lyrans are known to favor one of its variants.

Other items of interest...

• "each [Orloff] Grenadier regiment is organized in classic fashion, with three composite battalions each containing one heavy, one medium, and one light company."
• "the Stewart DropShips that used to carry Crusaders and Goliaths now carry beat-up Wolverine-Ms and Hermes IIs," which hints that past production of the former at least loosely parallels current production of the latter. 
• The 1st Oriente Fusiliers possess four modified Stalkers, which makes me wonder how many in the FWL have been modified to the 70-75 ton "lite" variants.
• The 3rd Oriente Fusiliers' assault battalion "includes a dozen 'Mechs of more than 80 tons," which makes me wonder if the FWL's Banshees are hiding in heavy battalions (three Trebuchets plus a Banshee makes 245 tons) or if the FWL might have a low Banshee fraction overall.
• "The 5th has the heaviest ordnance in the Fusiliers" with an assault battalion of Orions, Awesomes, Goliaths and Stalkers and two heavy battalions noted for including "ten Marauder-Ms," which makes Marauder-Ms sound like they're usually reserved for assault battalions. 
• The 3rd Oriente Hussars "is heavily stocked with older model 'Mechs (Archers, Griffins, Wasps)," a 'Mech plant on the planet Cameron produced its first run of Archers and Wasps for the Principality of Regulus in 2478 "from plans purloined from the Lyran Commonwealth," and "Gibson Federated had been producing Wolverine-M BattleMechs at a tremendous pace" at least by 2562.

FWL 3025: Regimental Compositions (part 1)

I've been wondering how to discuss the FWL's 3025 Regimental listings for weeks now. I can't keep putting it off if I ever want to get around to Lyran 'Mech production, though, so I'll just run through bare-bones observations.

To start with, the compositions of only 23 regiments (and 8 independent battalions) are described or can be inferred. We don't even know how many battalions the other regiments have, since the Capellans and Periphery (the only House books to consistently reach that level of detail) list some regiments as two battalions strong instead of three. (I should probably revisit that issue in the future.)

AeroSpace Weights

The weight listed for each regimental wing looks like it might be influenced by the weight of the regiment's battalions.

Assault Regiments (all two of them): heavy weight wings;
Heavy Regiments: mostly heavy or medium wings, only three (including one with an assault battalion) have a light wing;
Medium Regiments: split pretty evenly between heavy, medium and light;
Light Regiments: split pretty evenly between medium and light wings, with a slight (maybe insignificant) tendency for excessively light regiments to take light wings.

The single example wing has five Stingrays, two Cheetahs, and a recently captured Lyran Chippewa. (That recent action may be why the wing is at half strength.) Given the range of weights, I'd guess that each air lance would be rolled individually.

Infantry and Armor Support

Looking at the merc units, infantry support seems to be a prerequisite for tank support, in the same way that air support is a prerequisite for DropShips and DropShips are prerequisite for JumpShips. There's no telling just how much support is actually present, though.

(The Davion book lists these types of support for its merc units too, but it has exceptions to the Fighter - DropShip - JumpShip progression, and at a glance I see no pattern at all to its ground support.)


Next Time: the 'Mechs