(Part 1) What the 4th Succession War Implies About Population Size

tl;dr? The size of Tikonov's garrison implies that the Successor States have a total population of no more than 516 billion to 539 billion people.

Let's talk about Tikonov.

Tikonov has 5.279 billion people, and (according to the NAIS Military Atlases) fielded 80 militia regiments in the 4th Succession War. That's one militia regiment per 66 million people. Capellan worlds typically have a two-battalion militia each; using the Tikonov ratio, two battalions would imply a typical population of 44 million per world.

The House Liao: The Capellan Confederation (hereafter HL:CC) Atlas contains forty major Capellan worlds totaling 138.502 billion people, and averaging 3.46255 billion each. If we estimate the Successor States to have 156 such major worlds totaling 450 billion people, then the 116 outside the Confederation average only 2.68533 billion each. (Remarkably close to Chesterton's average of 2.68444 billion, also from HL:CC.) That makes the major Capellan worlds about 1.29x as populous as major non-Capellan worlds. If we assume that 1.29x ratio also holds for lesser worlds, then the "typical" non-Capellan world should average about 34.12 million.

I count about 1892 star systems in the Successor States, claiming (probably on the lower end of) 1974 to 2654 inhabited worlds between them. Assuming the Chesterton systems have an average number of planets for a non-Capellan system, that makes 377 to 373 "typical" Capellan worlds vs. (respectively) 1441 to 2125 "typical" non-Capellan worlds. That totals 66 billion to 89 billion humans on top of the 450 billion from major worlds (i.e., 516 billion to 539 billion humans in all).

On the other hand, the ratio of two battalions per 44 million people is a pretty rough abstraction. The "typical" Capellan worlds could be quite a lot smaller and still be able to support the two battalions; typical non-Capellan worlds may be more populous in comparison.

I don't know why Tikonov has only two battalions per 44 million people, but the reason probably applies to any population of significant size in BattleTech, which makes it useful for calculating an upper limit on planetary populations.

Godzilla Resurgence

I like things that are made of other things, so it's no surprise that I like Godzilla: Final Wars. But where that one's a comedy, to one-up Matthew Broderick's Godzilla, this one's a drama, to one-up Bryan Cranston's Godzilla.

AND OH MAN YOU GUYS

THAT TAIL

NOTHING SAYS GODZILLA LIKE THAT TAIL

Tiny googly eyes, needle-mouth and smoldering bellows chest 

will run from Oct 11 to Oct 18 in the US.

 

I wonder if the Fukushima disaster had / will have anything to do with it, and if / how the current push for stronger Japanese military will play into it.

Have a 'Mech: Hornet LAM

I'd hoped to post this Saturday but I took too long putting it together. It might be a while before I tackle anything else that requires editing and research.

Text version here. I still dislike how google is handling image hosting.

I'm pretty happy that I managed to keep it under 1000 words. It no doubt helps that my sources gave me very little text to rehash. Which isn't to say I wrote it wholecloth; like my first two LAMs, I pieced it together from a hundred little notes. That resulted in a bunch of "point, counterpoint" phrasings that I'm not really happy with, and probably contributed to how long it took to finish.

I didn't set out to make three Davion LAMs. But in hindsight, the Davion-centrism and Macross-centrism of the early material did make it kind of likely. I think I'll eventually follow up with a Jade Falcon LAM, a revision of my WoB Tarantula LAM, and a Rasalhague VTOL (an LAM hunter). That would give the series one unit per era, which would be kind of neat.

Images are all related to the writeup. The oldest rendition of a Hornet is seen at left; bottom compares a modern Hornet with the similar Duan Gung; and bottom right is the earliest rendition of a Chameleon trainer 'Mech, showing clear influences from the "I turn into a fighter plane" corps of 'Mechs.

Pathfinder: our maps & reference sheets

Reference Sheets: I forget where I found these. They're kind of useful. Not ideal, but so far I haven't cared enough to improve on them.

My Character Sheet: Never got around to updating this. I'll be switching to a mage soon, though, so maybe I'll actually change it up a bit.

DO NEW GUILD PCs STILL GET ONE FREE USE FROM THE DWARF FORGE?
As I recall, armor can gain either a +1 enhancement bonus, or spell resistance 13.
Weapons get a (chosen randomly) +1 enhancement bonus, shocking(?), keen, or defending.
[Edit, Sep 7: They don't. Not since the MageHammers took over. /Edit]

And now, the Known World:

Naturally, exact scale and contents of any region may vary from DM to DM and from week to week. Inset and key below the cut.

Chargers and Banshees and Loss Rates

tl;dr?

• The Charger and Banshee show the same rate of loss per year, which lets us estimate that there are about 1155 Firestarters (or one per battalion), 100 Clints, 150-450 Assassins and 350 Victors walking around in 3025.  
• Stingers use a different and simpler ratio, which lets us estimate that there are 2500 Archers, 1100 Jenners, and probably 100 (but maybe 700) Atlases in 3025. 
• The Wasp's figures are only possible if it were abandoned early on and then revived after the Star League fell.

Twenty Thousand

First, I shouldn't have treated 20YU, TR:3050 and MW2e as representing a single point in time. I've rewritten my "79k" post to reflect how things change from one to the next.

I don't know if the "1000 'Mechs per entry" trick will tease any useful data out of TR:3055; I doubt it'll work for TR:3058. (Fortunately I have the Field Manuals to work from. What will be trickier is figuring out how to account for ultra-light 'Mechs.)

ComStar's Cache Under Hilton Head

The Warrior Trilogy says "ComStar has more BattleMechs hidden here than any of the Successor States can claim." Clearly more than Davion's 110 regiments (14k 'Mechs), but probably less than Davion+Steiner's 110+75 regiments (23.7k 'Mechs). TR:2750 has twenty 'Mech entries; at 1k apiece, that would make 20k 'Mechs--right in the middle.

The MW2e affiliation table implies that ComStar expends 1200 'Mechs/yr against the Clans. At that rate, the cache would last 16.67 years, which would seem like a natural fit for the Truce-End date in 3067. 

Except ComStar already pulled at least 8300 to 8900 'Mechs out of the cache between the end of the Fourth Succession War and the Battle of Tukayyid. So the cache runs dry no later than early 3062, more likely by 3060, and even earlier if Focht prepares a secondary cache on Tukayyid. [Edit, Aug 28: Or earlier yet if ComStar continued supplying 'Mechs to the Rasalhague Kungsarme. /Edit]

33 Solahma NPCs

Need NPCs? Here's a bunch. Back at the beginning of June, someone in /BTG/ requested almost-solahma Smoke Jaguars for a "Dirty Dozen" type unit to be assembled in secret by their Loremaster.

I responded with four, each one a different combination of happy or unhappy and ambitious or not ambitious. (I wanted a third angle to differentiate their attitudes, which would've made for eight combinations, but couldn't come up with one.) Named randomly because I never know how to name* Clanners.

Oscar, RFL IIC (Jag AC variant) - mediocre warrior from a group of patrilineal mixings the Jags have given up on. All warriors from that breeding line know that their careers are basically over, no matter what trajectory they were on before. The chip on Oscar's shoulder has worked him into even worse assignments than he'd normally get.

Arkady [insert bloodname], Warhammer IIC (Jag LRM variant) - one of the intelligent commanders who retreated early on Tukayyid. Ousted by a new power bloc but accepted the demotion gracefully. Recognizes a losing battle and respects enemies who devise them.

Lora and Branka, Shadow Cats - relatively young; could've been ristars but pissed off the wrong people. Mistakenly see themselves as the Loremaster's proteges and are convinced that a good showing here puts them on track to a bloodname.

Tamari, Jenner IIC - unusually competent freebirth warrior who was popular isorla among several Homeworld Clans in the four years before Revival. Seems easy going for a Jag - she tries to settle disputes with comrades with Trial by Dance Off (augmented or not) instead of combat - yet really enjoys unaugmented murder and is basically super happy to be in this unit.

I'm pretty happy with these, even if they're not terrifically original. (I'm pretty sure I'm channeling the "mistaken protege," "popular isorla" and "augmented dance-off" concepts from NPCs other people have posted previously.)

After mulling it over a few hours, I posted six more: