Sunday, July 17, 2016

Seventy-Nine Thousand

A quick count of the forces in 20 Year Update shows 575.33 Regiments in the Inner Sphere and near periphery. 128 'Mechs per regiment (as described in BattleForce 1e) would put that at about 73600 'Mechs.
AFFC268 Regiments, 1 Battalions [sic]
DCMS99 Regiments [including Ghost Regiments]
FRRK16 Regiments, 2 Battalions
FWLM 72 Regiments, 2 Battalions
CCAF30 Regiments [some are short a battalion]
CG50+ [sic] Regiments
TDF14 Regiments
MAF12 Regiments, 1 Battalion
OAMC3 Regiments [full regiments now, unlike 3025]
bandit[8 Regiments and 4 Battalions]
[Edit August 24: 55000 (the estimated number of 'Mechs in 3025) multiplied by 4/3rds is 73300, a mere rounding error away from my count for 20YU. Per 20YU, the War of 3039 petered out into the usual pattern of raid and reprisal, so attrition should be back in equilibrium with production, which means 'Mech production by 3050 should likewise be 4/3rds of what it was in 3025. (I.e., up to 3600/yr from the old 2700/yr.) The ComGuard was deploying during this period and supplying 'Mechs to other forces, however, which would account for some of the increase.

When the Clans invade they destroy many regiments and capture several factories. Per TR:3050, the Successor States step up production at their remaining facilities. That wouldn't have recouped all their losses, but for the sake of estimating production, suppose we round the Inner Sphere up to 79000 'Mechs (a thousand for each non-Clan enty TR:3050). Subtracting the ComGuard's 50 regiments would leave 72600, or 1.32x as many 'Mechs as were going around in 3025.

I notice that MW2e has 1.33x as much chance as MW1e did of a "Successor State" character scoring a state affiliation (almost 36/36 instead of 27/36). This implies that the Successor States were building 3600/yr shortly after Tukayyid, and agrees with the figure above derived from TR:3050.  /Edit]

If the "Successor State" table represents 3600 'Mechs/year:

The first affiliation roll in MW2e is 1d6 to determine whether you're ComStar (1/6), Inner Sphere (3/6) or Clan (2/6). The Clans are known for bringing half as many 'Mechs to a fight as their non-Clan opponents; having half as much chance to roll Clan as non-Clan (2:4) is in line with them suffering half as much attrition.

Steiner-Davion 1500
St Ives150
Ghost Bear400
Jade Falcon400
Nova Cat400
Smoke Jag400
Steel Viper400
The Great Houses look about how you'd expect, considering the events of 3028 to 3050.

ComStar is a surprise; their actions in the Free Rasalhague rump state usually get glossed over, but this affiliation roll implies that they make up about 25% of the Inner Sphere's continued losses to the Clans. (A bit over 9 regiments for the ComGuard annually, which happens to be how far understrength they are as of the ComStar sourcebook in 3055.)

The minor powers all look questionable. The FRR figure seems too high to be the single factory which survived the Clans; St Ives comes off as a real powerhouse, more than doubling its 3025 production; and the Magistracy lists a rate appropriate to the Outworlds, which lists a rate appropriate to the Concordat, which lists a rate appropriate to the Magistracy.

Finally, the number of 'Mechs fleeing into banditry seems to have fallen from 200/year in 3025 to less than 17/year in 3050. I guess the Clans don't give broken regiments a chance to flee, or maybe desperate types join Solaris VII stables now instead.

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