Thursday, June 1, 2017

Second Look at 3025 Lyran Assault Production

TL;DR? Best guess is ~94 assault 'Mechs/yr, including 33 Zeuses. Exact number of other types TBD; estiumates below the jump-cut. 

Moving carefully with Lyran production because how I proceed here will decide how I estimate the other Houses.

Zeuses: 33/yr

If you look at the 'Mech frequencies produced by the MW1e tables (from this post), and scale them to put the Valkyrie at exactly 130, then you get a total just shy of 2900 (~2897). That's a tempting match for the MW1e Affiliations table: 2700/yr for the Great Houses, plus 200/yr from lesser powers. Under this scheme there'd be 109 Commandos built/yr, 130 Valkyries, 143 Panthers, 82 Vindicators, 122 Enforcers, 64 Dragons, and 33 Zeuses.

That's not many Zeuses, and a whole mess of Commandos. Might have to tweak those figures, but I hope not.

Atlases: ~20/yr

TR:3050 says the Draconis Combine produces more Atlases than the Federated Commonwealth does. HD:FS has the Quentin factory operating at half capacity and producing 5 Atlases/yr in 3025 -- if the Atlas line on Al Na'ir is similar (MW1e p114 calls Al Na'ir the "counterpart" to Quentin), they'd produce a total of ~20/yr for the Combine by 3050; and since the Atlas is one of two designs Defiance Industries "specializes" in (the other being the Zeus), it's hard to imagine Hesperus would build much less than 20/yr.

Stalkers: < 15, & BattleMasters: < 17 to 35?

TR:3050 lists the FWL variants of the Stalker and BattleMaster before the FedCom variants which, as I mentioned in my first look, suggests the FWL variants are produced in greater numbers. The chart in HM:FWL has 12 BattleMasters and 11 Stalkers built/yr in 3025; based on the Random Affiliation Chart in MW2e, I believe the FWL has raised its 'Mech production to 700/yr despite losing Oliver to the Lyrans, so by 3050 we might expect the FWL to be building (12+11)*700/470 BattleMasters and Stalkers annually.

Although the Lyran Commonwealth also expands production of some 'Mechs, those 'Mechs are named in The NAIS Military Atlas of the Fourth Succession War, 20 Year Update, and TR:3050, with neither the BattleMaster nor Stalker among them. So Lyran production of these 'Mechs in 3025 should be about the same as in 3050, and in 3050 that's less than the FWL's -- so no more than 16 & 18 per year.

TR:3050 does list the Lyran Commonwealth as building two variants of BattleMaster, though, and if they count separately against the FWL's variant then they might both be close to 18/yr. That could raise the Lyran BattleMaster total almost (but not quite) as high as 36/yr. 


Back here I estimated that the Lyrans should build 119 assault 'Mechs/yr, based on HM:FWL's claim that "the League's assault battalions have become increasingly populated with Orions, Warhammers, and other lighter 'Mechs, placing them at a distinct disadvantage against equivalent units from the Lyran Commonwealth." Need to examine that more carefully.

The Lyrans build at least 72 certainly (to match the FWL's 30 assault 'Mechs and 42 Orions), 94 probably (adding the FWL's 22 Warhammers), and up to 115 possibly (adding the FWL's 21 Marauder-Ms). Ideally, the Steiner-Davion alliance would get half of all assault production, but is that 10% of an overall 2700/yr or do I add more for the lesser powers, and is 10% really 10% or did BF1e round it up from (say) 3/36ths?
  • I notice that the Draconis Combine produces Chargers, and I don't think anybody really wants to count Chargers against the Inner Sphere's 270 assault 'Mechs/yr; so, until I discover a compelling reason not to, I'll count Charger production against the lesser powers instead. 
  • The FWL more or less sat out the 4th Succession War, which leaves 236 assault 'Mechs/yr between the other four Houses. Half is 118, and take away 25 for Davion would leave 93 for Steiner. 
    • If the FWL doesn't sit out, then Steiner ought to build about 110/yr. 
  • Looking again at MW1e's "Determining House Involvement" table:
    • Marik builds 34/yr, has a 6/36 chance of encounters on the Liao border and a 7/36 chance of encounters on the Steiner border. If assault 'Mechs (averaged over the long term) are a consistent fraction of all encounters, then Marik should be sending 34*[7/(6+7)] newly built assault 'Mechs to the Steiner border and 34*[6/(6+7)] to the Liao border.
    • Davion builds 25/yr with a 10/36 chance of encounters on the Kuritan border and 5/36 on the Liao border, and should likewise send 25*[10/(5+10)] newly built assault 'Mechs to the Kuritan border and 25*[5/(5+10)] to the Liao border. 
    • If Liao builds only enough assault 'Mechs to match what comes at them from Davion and Marik, then Liao would build 15.7+8.3 assault 'Mechs. 
    • If Steiner matches the 18.3 assault 'Mechs coming from Marik, and Kurita matches the 16.7 coming from Davion, that leaves 152 to split along the Steiner-Kurita border -- that makes 152/2+16.7 (ie, 92.7) for Kurita, and 152/2+18.3 (ie, 94.3) for Steiner.
That's ~94/yr by three different methods. Seems pretty good.

Could raise Steiner production to 103 easily, or 110 to 115 if I add extra Zeuses (or, the better to buff Hesperus, more Atlases); but the FWL produces 141 'Mechs/yr in the 65-100 ton range, and Steiner's weight advantage is supposed to end around 60-ton mark. The more assault 'Mechs Steiner builds, the fewer heavy 'Mechs they can build--with 115 assault 'Mechs they'd have only 26 heavies/yr spread across 8 production lines, which is just silly low.

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