Second Look at Federated Suns 3025 'Mech Production

[TL;DR?
157 Wolverines and Griffins;
130 Valkyries;
122 Enforcers;
88 Locusts, Phoenix Hawks and Wasps;
64 JagerMechs;
29 Dervishes;
28 Blackjacks;
20 Marauders;
20 Victors;
14 Ostsols;
11 Ostscouts;
7 Javelins;
5 Atlases; and
5 Riflemen.]

This calls up memories and shadows of memories from fourteen or fifteen years ago. I'm sure people were trying to work it out fourteen or fifteen years before that, too.

29 Phoenix Hawks would put the Suns 830 tons shy of a 49 ton national average. That's 17 'Mechs' worth - maybe to make up for saddling Liao and Kurita with 17 Chargers.

Interestingly, when HD:FS (p125) talks about which 'Mechs are most common in lances of different weight, it mentions Shadow Hawks instead of Wolverines. Wonder if that's an error (like the Centurions on Panpour) or deliberate.

Changed my mind on one thing since last time: the Federated Suns still builds 270 'Mechs of "common" design each year, but only the designs named on HD:FS' manufacturing pages. No hidden Stingers, Shadow Hawks, etc. The manufacturing pages still show only 500 of the Suns' 700 built each year, and they still order the manufacturers by size.

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Totals		270	230	200
??	Norse Works of Marduk	?? Griffins ?? Wolverines
130	Corean of New Avalon		130 Valkyries
??	Achernar of New Avalon	?? Wasps ?? Phoenix Hawks ?? Locusts
??	Kallon of Talon	?? Riflemen ?? Griffins	?? Enforcers ?? JagerMechs
50 - 65	Independence of Quentin	20 Marauders	5 Atlases 5 - 20 JagerMechs 20 Victors
25	Aldis of Terra			11 Ostscouts 14 Ostsols

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I already knew the 430 "uncommon" 'Mechs included 122 Enforcers. I've now also determined it includes 7 Javelins, 11 Ostscouts and 14 Ostsols; and since

130 Valkyries + 7 Javelins + 11 Ostscouts = 148
142 Panthers + 6 Jenners = 148

I think it's a fair guess that the Suns build 64 JagerMechs to match the Combine's 64 Dragons. The Draconis Combine is the Federated Suns' primary enemy, and the JagerMech looks like a Suns' counterpoint to the Dragon - the Dragon has 1.5x the armor while the JagerMech has 1.5x the firepower.

HS:LC (p120) and TR:3025 agree that the Suns build Dervishes. "As the last 'Mech designed to serve the Star League in large numbers" I would expect it to have "slow" turnover like the UrbanMech, Firestarter, Jenner and Javelin. The Inner Sphere has 4/3rds as many medium 'Mechs as light 'Mechs overall - if the Dervish is the only medium with "slow" turnover then Achernar should build

(4+5+6+7)*4/3 = 29 per year.

So out of the full 430 "uncommon" designs built each year, I have only 28 left to identify.

Three Princedoms

I count about 507 named stars in the 3025 Federated Suns, which is perfect for 110 'Mech regiments divided between three sub-kingdoms. For production I'm only interested in House Regulars though. Counting carefully,

• Sandoval's Draconis March has 62 battalions of regulars. (19 Deneb Light Cavalry, 9 Ceti Hussars, 6 Robinsons Rangers, 7 New Ivaarsen Chasseurs, 20 March Militia, and 1 Conroe Training Battalion.)
• Hasek's Capellan March has 31 battalions of regulars. (9 Syrtis Fusiliers, 2 Aragon Borderers, 3 Capellan Dragoons, 2 Kittery Borderers, 14 March Militia, and 1 Bell Training Battalion.)
•  Davion's Crucis March sponsors the remaining 117 battalions of regulars. (90 battalions from the coreward regions near New Avalon, and 27 battalions for the outer regions.)

(Sandoval has exactly twice as many battalions as Hasek, no doubt because the MW1e encounter charts make Sandoval's border exactly twice as active as Hasek's; and amusingly, Hasek has only one more battalion than the Taurians do.)

Sandoval's Draconis March

If each March's forces are proportionate to the March's production, then Sandoval's 62 battalions (20.67 regiments) mean 207 'Mechs/yr split between Norse Works of Marduk and Independence of Quentin.

Marduk should build at least 150 Griffins and Wolverines each year, because that's how many VTOLs the next-biggest site (Cal-Boeing of Dorwinion) builds.

Quentin lists its 'Mechs from least-produced to most-produced: 5 Atlases, an intermediate number of JagerMechs, 20 Victors and 20 Marauders. Putting the JagerMechs right in the middle at 12/yr would bring Quentin's total to 57.

207 = 150 + 57

A very good fit!

Hasek's Capellan March

500 'Mechs/yr on the manufacturing pages, minus 150 at Marduk, 130 at Corean and 57 at Quentin, leaves 163 'Mechs, at least half of which should go to Achernar of New Avalon (because it's listed ahead of Kallon of Talon).

Hasek's 31 battalions (10.33 regiments) would mean 103 'Mechs/yr. That's too many to all be Kallon of Talon, which means we need a site not named on the manufacturer's page - and 28 Blackjacks (filling our final allotment of unidentified 'Mechs from earlier) would look very natural at GM of Kathil.

That would leave 75 for Kallon of Talon. Only 57 or less should be heavy, so as to not outshine Quentin (the "core" of the Suns heavy production); if Talon has all 52 remaining JagerMechs, then there's only room for 5 Riflemen. Which isn't too surprising - Quentin also lists its 'Mechs from least-produced to most, and Rifleman production is low overall. It must also build 11 Enforcers because

230 minus 130 Valkyries minus 64 JagerMechs minus 20 Victors minus 5 Atlases = 11 Enforcers

which means Talon's last 7 'Mechs have to be Griffins.

Davion's Crucis March

This all leaves 88 Wasps, Phoenix Hawks and Locusts for Achernar of New Avalon. (Which, by happy coincidence, is the same number of 'Mechs I find Luthien Armor Works building on Luthien.)

TR:3025 names Achernar of Dorwinion as the primary manufacturer of Enforcers and Dervishes. It looks like the writer originally planned to give that plant 140/yr (the 111 unassigned Enforcers and 29 Dervishes, in the slot Cal-Boeing of Dorwinion now occupies between Norse Works' 150/yr and Corean's 130/yr) and then changed their mind.

The outer regions of the Crucis March sponsor 27 battalions (9 regiments), so it would be convenient for them to manufacture 90 'Mechs/yr. That would leave 50 Enforcers and Dervishes for Achernar of Dorwinion, which may be few enough to be left off HD:FS' manufacturing pages.

The Islamabad Combat Region is the modern successor to the United Hindu Collective, which (per HD:FS p116) joined the Federated Suns as a semi-autonomous member. With 20 worlds they ought to produce 35 'Mechs/yr. I like 14 Enforcers, 14 Dervishes and 7 Javelins because it would:

• give them about the same average weight as the Suns as a whole; 
• put the Javelin in the outer reaches of the realm, like Coventry's Firestarters and Tematagi's Spiders;
• be close enough to New Syrtis to imply Michael Hasek's bureaucratic sabotage (HD:FS p139) is the reason Javelins are such hangar queens (HD:FS p125); 
• leave the biggest share of Dervishes to Dorwinion; and
• increases the share of Enforcers built at Dorwinion to 35.

The 62 remaining Enforcers would be divided between two or three lesser manufacturers.