Third look at 3025 Lyran 'Mech Production

[TL;DR: Hesperus builds a heavy 100 'Mechs, Coventry builds a light 139 'Mechs, Furillo builds 39, Carlisle and Sudeten make a combined 55, Tharkad makes 55, Twycross makes a heavy 53, Pandora makes 18, and there's another 41 I have yet to account for.]

Basics: The Lyrans build 500 'Mechs/yr, of which 230 are uncommon, including 109 Commandos, 33 Zeuses and 5 Firestarters.

Defiance Industries and Coventry Metal Works - being the Commonwealth's first (HS:LC p122) and second (p165) biggest manufacturers, and each listing their primary products (p136) first - set a precedent for HS:LC's manufacturing page listing everything from biggest to smallest.

Key insight this time around is that many of HS:LC's manufacturers are new, that P1e's manufacturing pages look like they were cut from an early draft of HS:LC, and that the Periphery states build 167 'Mechs/yr.

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Defiance Industries

Hesperus II: Zeus, Atlas, Archer, Griffin, Hatchetman; Rommel/Patton, Manticore
Furillo: Zeus, Wasp, Locust

If the Lyrans' newest manufacturers build 167/yr, that leaves 333/yr for the older manufacturers. HS:LC (p47) says Hesperus was "responsible for over 30 percent of our BattleMech production" in the First Succession War; 30% of 333 = 100 'Mechs/yr (about 20 per production line).

The Successor States build 2700 'Mechs/yr, of which 10% should be assault 'Mechs, of which the Lyran Commonwealth and the Federated Suns should split half. The Suns build 25 assault 'Mechs/yr, which leaves 110/yr for the Lyrans. TR:3025 associates three assault 'Mechs with the Commonwealth:

• the Zeus, built at 33/yr;
• the Banshee is not in production, but if it were, the population of 1667 Banshees would mean a "slow" production rate of 57/yr; and
• the Atlas. An initial 110 assault 'Mechs/yr, minus 33 Zeuses and 57 Banshees, would make 20 Atlases/yr.

I've also previously estimated Hesperus' Atlas at 20/yr for other reasons.

HS:LC lists production lines from highest to lowest. If we accept the Atlas as 20/yr, then Hesperus' Archer, Griffin and Hatchetman lines can be no larger than 20 and the Zeus line can be no smaller than 20. To get as many Wasps and Locusts as possible, Furillo needs as many Zeuses as possible - 20 Zeuses on Hesperus means 13 Zeuses on Furillo, and therefore 13 Wasps and 13 Locusts, bringing Defiance Industries to a total output of 139 'Mechs.

By weight, this makes Defiance Industries "By far the largest BattleMech company still functioning in the Inner Sphere" (HS:LC p122):

Corean Enterprises, 130 Valkyries = 3900 tons
Gorton, Kingsley & Thorpe, 142 Panthers = 4970 tons
Earthwerks (FWL), 114 or 128 (various) = 5255 or 6165 tons
Defiance Industries, 139 (various) = 8560 tons

Last week I figured the Norse Works of Marduk at 150 Griffins and Wolverines (8250 tons), which comes pretty close to Defiance; but I think Defiance leaps further ahead with (HS:LC, p135-139):

• ongoing renovations at the Furillo plant, which has at least one additional 'Mech line waiting idle;
• a Vehicle Division producing Manticore tanks and soon to produce Rommel/Patton tanks;
• three other major Divisons, and joint ownership of a major subsidiary;
• joint ownership of a JumpShip yard; and
• rumors of further expansions. 

I suspect Defiance is also more heavily involved in the production of spare parts, but that's difficult to quantify.

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Coventry Metal Works

Coventry: Commando, Vulcan, Phoenix Hawk, Firestarter, Stinger

If Defiance Industries builds 139 'Mechs, then Coventry (because it's listed second) builds no more than that; with 109 Commandos, 5 Firestarters and at most 5 Stingers, there's just 20 'Mechs left to split between Vulcans and Phoenix Hawks.

Splitting them 10 and 10 brings the total to 3850 tons, just shy of the Federated Suns' Valkyrie plant.

It's interesting that the Lyran Commonwealth's two biggest manufacturers would build about the same total number of 'Mechs as the Federated Suns' two biggest plants (139 + 139 vs 150 + 130).

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Bowie Industries

Alarion: Chippewa, Leopard, Union
Carlisle: Marauder, Archer; Packrat

Olivetti Weaponry

Sudeten: Warhammer, Thunderbolt; Hunter, J Edgar

If the Commonwealth's biggest, oldest manufacturers build 333 'Mechs/yr, it looks like they might match the Inner Sphere's average of 49 tons per 'Mech. Defiance's 139 'Mechs are so heavy, and Coventry's 139 'Mechs are so light, that the last 55 'Mechs would mass 71 tons each.

That looks a lot like Bowie and Olivetti's 'Mechs.

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Lockheed/CBM Corporation

Donegal: Lucifer, Sabre, Centurion
Tharkad: Lightning, Hellcat
Gibbs: Eagle, Thunderbird

TharHes Industries

Tharkad: Crusader

Shipil Company

Skye: Seydlitz, Overlord

If Bowie Industries builds about 55 'Mechs and fighters per year, that means something like 28 Chippewas; if Lockheed/CBM builds about 55 fighters across its 7 production lines, that means something like 8 Lucifers; and if Shipil builds about 55 Seydlitzes, that brings the Lyrans to around 91 signature fighters.

And we do in fact expect the Lyrans to build 90 signature aerospace fighters.

The five Great Houses build 2700 'Mechs altogether; half are common designs, with each House building 270. So, since the Great Houses build 1264 fighters altogether, we might expect half to be common designs with each House building 126. The Lyrans build 216 fighters in all (1264 * 6/35 = 216), and when we take away 126 for common designs, that leaves 90 for signature designs.

If the company ahead of TharHes builds about 55 fighters and the company behind TharHes builds about 55 fighters then TharHes should build about 55 Crusaders.

I'm surprised that Lucifer production would be so low; but looking at the medium fighters in other states, Kurita's Shilone and Davion's Corsair both also occupy the smallest possible production slots.

It's also surprising that Lockheed/CBM, "The largest manufacturer of AeroSpace Fighters in the Commonwealth" (HS:LC p122) would build the same number as the smaller Shipil, but it's got the same kind of weight advantage that Defiance has over Coventry.

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Trellshire Heavy Industries

Twycross: Stalker, BattleMaster, Rifleman
Chahar: Artillery pieces, personal weapons, vibrabombs, munitions

Red Devil Industries

Pandora: Rifleman, BattleMaster; Condor, Centipede, infantry weapons, artillery systems

The Lyran Commonwealth builds 230 'Mechs of uncommon design each year. If all of them are shown on HS:LC's manufacturing page (and if I've counted the Atlases, Hatchetmen and Vulcans right) then Trellshire must build 33 Stalkers.

If the HS:LC page shows 110 assault 'Mechs/yr (and if I have the Atlases and Stalkers right) then Trellshire and Red Devil must build a combined 24 BattleMasters.

The manufacturers listed on HD:FS' manufacturing page all build 50 or more units; if the same is true of Red Devil, and all 6 of its production lines count towards that 50, then the Rifleman line (being biggest) has to be at least 9/yr. The smallest Free Worlds League manufacturer happens to build 9 Quickdraws, while the second smallest builds 18 'Mechs of two types. If Red Devil builds 9 Riflemen and 9 BattleMasters, then that leaves 33 Stalkers, 15 BattleMasters and (at a guess) 5 Riflemen for Twycross - a total tonnage which happens to exactly match Independence Weaponry on Quentin in the Federated Suns.

On a strange but reassuring note, these three "newer" BattleMech manufacturers come to an as-perfect-as-possible average of 73.5 tons per 'Mech, or 1.5x the normal average of 49 tons.

The Inner Sphere builds only 26 to 29 Riflemen in all. With 8 already claimed by the Free Worlds League and 5 by the Federated Suns, giving 14 to the Lyran Commonwealth will make it very unlikely that the Capellans or Draconians build any.

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Leftovers

This all leaves 41 'Mechs/yr unaccounted for. I don't yet see any signs as to what they might be.